The Atmospheric Science team at Colorado State University recently released a qualitative discussion around the factors which will determine the Atlantic hurricane basin activity for 2019.
The scenarios provided assess two main variables; the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Osciallation (AMO), which relates to sea surface temperatures and the phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Each scenario is given an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) value that can be predictive of tropical activity.
The five scenarios they anticipate and the likelihood of each are as follows;
1. Strong AMO and no El Nino, resulting in ACE value of 170- 10% chance
2. Above average AMO with no El Nino, ACE value of 130- 25% chance
3. AMO is above average and El Nino develops, ACE value of 80- 20% chance
4. Below average AMO with no El Nino, ACE value of 80- 30% chance
5. Below average AMO and El Nino develops, ACE value of 50- 15% chance
Typically, ACE values have these levels of anticipated Tropical Cyclone activity;
You can read the full discussion here- https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/12/2018-12.pdf
The next forecast will be released April 4, 2019. We are all anxious to see what Mother Nature will have in store for the coming hurricane season!