Two new systems


In the Western Caribbean we have 92L, which is disorganized at present, but low wind shear should allow further development in the near term. The NHC is giving a 50% chance of developing by Friday and 60% by Monday. The GFS model is predicting 92 will make landfall as a weak tropical storm on Saturday, somewhere between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The Navy’s NAVGEM model gives a more westerly track and brings the system ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. If the system stays more in the central Gulf, folks in those coastal areas can expect some pretty good rain showers.

Behind that we have 93L-  a new wave that popped off the coast of Africa yesterday. Warm waters and moderate shear today and tomorrow will allow for a bit of development. After that, the waters will cool and the Saharian Air Layer (SAL) could impede development. The NHC is giving this one a 60% chance of development in the next five days. The current forecasts do not show any impact on land areas.

A reasonable guess is that we will have TS Erin by the weekend bringing rain to the Gulf coast somewhere between Louisiana and Mississippi…


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