Two new systems

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In the Western Caribbean we have 92L, which is disorganized at present, but low wind shear should allow further development in the near term. The NHC is giving a 50% chance of developing by Friday and 60% by Monday. The GFS model is predicting 92 will make landfall as a weak tropical storm on Saturday, somewhere between Eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. The Navy’s NAVGEM model gives a more westerly track and brings the system ashore near the Texas/Mexico border. If the system stays more in the central Gulf, folks in those coastal areas can expect some pretty good rain showers.

Behind that we have 93L-  a new wave that popped off the coast of Africa yesterday. Warm waters and moderate shear today and tomorrow will allow for a bit of development. After that, the waters will cool and the Saharian Air Layer (SAL) could impede development. The NHC is giving this one a 60% chance of development in the next five days. The current forecasts do not show any impact on land areas.

A reasonable guess is that we will have TS Erin by the weekend bringing rain to the Gulf coast somewhere between Louisiana and Mississippi…

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