Nothing too extraordinary to report here…. We do have our 10th named storm of the season, Jerry, which has appeared much earlier than the 10th storm usually does (that’s October 19th btw). Jerry will wander the Central Atlantic, far from any land areas… Meh.
We also have 97L, which the NHC is giving a 50% chance of developing in the next five days, so we could end up with the 11th named storm by the weekend (Karen!). 97 is expected to come ashore between Louisiana and Florida, but the intensity is uncertain…
The team at CSU has released another 2 week forecast for the period ending 10/10 and predicts “… the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at below average levels (<70 percent of climatology).”
While 2013 is keeping up with the averages in regards to named storms, it is lacking “ooomphf.” Is is possible to have a season with no majors? Yuppers! There have been four years with no major hurricanes since 1960. So about every 13 years we have an Atlantic season with no majors. So perhaps we are seeing the curse of unlucky number 13?
It would be great to have a definitive answer on the fate of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, but we all know that just isn’t how it works. Before we give up, keep in mind that there have been a good number of noteworthy late season hurricanes;
Wilma- October 24th
Sandy- October 29th.
Hurricane Mitch- November 5th
So we continue to watch and wait…