New Disturbance – 93L

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A new disturbance with the potential for development is about 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and moving west-northwest. Two of the three reliable models are predicting development into a tropical depression by tomorrow or Thursday. In addition, the National Hurricane Center gives a 70% chance that the disturbance will develop in the next two days. However, several factors will be working against intensification in the near term including dry air to the north and mingling with the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone). Dr. Jeff Masters of the WeatherUnderground gives a 10% chance that 93L will reach hurricane status by Saturday.

As of today, the GFS and European models show the system continuing on a northwesterly track into early next week passing north of Hispaniola. This route places the disturbance in the path of a strong low pressure system off the Eastern U.S. which could have the capability to re-direct the system out to sea.

Of course, things can (and do) often change in the hurricane game. We will continue to monitor this system and keep you updated in the coming days!

93L

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