The Tropics are Hopping!

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We now have three areas of interest in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico!

First off, Tropical Storm Cristobal is continuing on a north-northeastward path and bringing heavy rains to the Central and Southeast Bahamas as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. Some intensification is possible in the next 24-48 hours and the system may even reach hurricane strength as it makes a pass near Bermuda on Wednesday. Most reliable forecast models now agree that Cristobal will move eastward out to sea, posing no threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Hot on the heels of Cristobal, we have 97L which should arrive in the Lesser Antilles by Friday. Conditions are favorable for some slow strengthening during that time. One of the more reliable models, the UKMET, predicts tropical storm formation and the National Hurricane Center is giving a 30 % chance of development in the next five days. 97 is still a long ways out, so anything could happen in the next 7-10 days.

Last, but not least, a weak cold front in the Gulf of Mexico is creating a good deal of thunderstorm activity off the coast of Louisiana. Moderate wind shear may allow this system to develop further by Thursday or Friday as it moves toward the Texas coast.

After relatively little activity thus far, things seem to be heating up! This is no surprise, as the Atlantic Hurricane Season typically becomes more active during late August and September- with the peak around September 10th. In fact, 61 percent of all Atlantic named storms since 1950 have been either in August or September… We will certainly be watching 97 and the disturbance in the Gulf very closely in the coming days!

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