Atlantic Basin Activity Forecast, Super Typhoon Soudelor

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The good Dr.’s Klotzbach and Gray have released their two-week forecast for the period of August 4th through August 17th, which calls for below average amounts of activity. The fact that there no tropical cyclones in the basin at present and that none of the reliable forecast models call for cyclone development in the next five days are just two of the reasons for the prediction.  Another important factor is that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently rather weak, which typically inhibits cyclone formation. You can view the entire report here – http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/august_4_2015.pdf

So long story short… it’s not looking like the Atlantic will not have much activity in the near term.

In the Pacific, tropical storm Guillermo is steadily weakening as it works its way towards Hawaii. The storm  is expected to brush the Islands tomorrow and Thursday, but will likely be downgraded to depression status by that time.

The big news of the day is of course, category 5 Super Typhoon Soudelor. With sustained winds at an estimated 180 mph, Soudelor is the strongest tropical cyclone ON THE ENTIRE PLANET thus far for 2015. The storm is expected to weaken to category 3 or 4 by the time it blasts over northern Taiwan late this week, but that will do little to minimize the impact of the tremendous rainfall and associated flooding from a typhoon of that strength.

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