First Atlantic Tropical Storm of 2016?


Invest 91 is swirling near the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center is giving a 50 percent chance of development into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm in the next five days. Should the system  achieve tropical storm status, it will be named Bonnie as we already had our “A” storm in January with Alex, which hit the Azores.

The fairly three reliable  models ( the American GFS, the European ECMWF , and the British UKMET  ) for predicting tropical storm creation up to four days in advance are all in agreement as of this morning- increasing confidence that the system will develop.

Even though 91 will move over warm waters in the coming days it probably won’t have enough time to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane, so heavy rain is the main concern from this system. At the point the storm track is uncertain; U.S. impacts could be anywhere along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina early next week.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, just seven days from now!


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