As of this morning Matthew is located about 300 miles south of San Juan and is gaining strength. The system is expected to move westward over the next few days and then make a northwest or northward turn in the Caribbean Sea on Saturday.
The conditions Matthew will encounter in the short term are ripe for intensification; low wind shear, warm waters and moist air. Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba can reasonably expect to see a category one or two hurricane early next week.
As we know, it is entirely too soon to predict what threat, if any, Matthew may pose to the U.S. But of course, that doesn’t keep the forecasters from running models and speculating 🙂
A few possibilities at present;
- The system could push to the east if there is a southward dip in the jet stream is present over some of the Eastern U.S.
- Matthew may steer closer to the U.S. if high pressure aloft is stronger near the Eastern U.S.
- MAYBE, just MAYBE the system will maneuver into the Gulf Mexico. This seems like
the least likely scenario however…