It appears that Invest 97 will survive the “hurricane graveyard” of the eastern Caribbean and will continue to strengthen as it moves into the western Caribbean today. Odds are good 97 will reach tropical storm status (Hello Earl!) in the next few days as it moves over the warm waters south of Jamaica tomorrow and towards the Yucatan Peninsula later this week. This system could pose a threat to parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and eastern Mexico.
We are nearing the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which historically runs from mid-August to October, so we will likely see much more activity soon. In addition, we are now in a La Nina phase which helps decrease the wind shear in the tropical Atlantic that can inhibit cyclone formation. Using an objective pattern matching technique based on recent Mathematical Modeling Ensembles from NOAA, there’s cause to believe those hurricanes may be more likely to head for the U.S. this year. The analyzed data revealed similarities to seasons that favored hurricane strikes in Texas, Florida, the Southeast, and New England.
The map below shows the Atlantic and Gulf temperatures from August – October… nice and toasty… and perfect for cyclone formation.
Hang on everyone this could be a busy season!